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Radar On Market Access: How Will Subsidy Expansion Impact ACA Marketplaces?

Posted by Leslie Small on Mar 23, 2021


For an individual health insurance market that is already hitting its stride, the new pandemic relief legislation's expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies is yet another positive catalyst that should make the exchanges more attractive to insurers and customers alike, experts tell AIS Health.

Under the American Rescue Plan, which President Joe Biden signed into law on March 11, individuals who already qualified for premium tax credits under the ACA will see more generous financial aid. In addition, people who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL) will be eligible for reduced premiums for the first time thanks to a provision that caps marketplace premiums at 8.5% of all enrollees' income.

Fritz Busch, an actuary at Milliman, Inc., says the newly expanded ACA subsidies will likely bring even more people into the exchanges than the pandemic-related special enrollment period that started Feb. 15. And, "it's generally agreed that more membership in the individual market means favorable morbidity," so actuaries will need to figure out just what the impact of that will be, he adds.

Looking ahead to 2022, not only will the revamped subsidies bring more people into the marketplaces, but they will also likely change how people sort themselves among the different coverage tiers — and how insurers respond, Busch says.

"The higher subsidies go, the more likely it is going to be that someone is eligible for a free plan — particularly bronze plans, so there could be some movement towards bronze because of that," he explains. Health insurers, then, "will want to make sure that they’re in position for [enrollees] to select their bronze plan as a free plan. If their bronze plans are too expensive, they're not going to be free anymore."

"We'll also have an extensive increase of competition in marketplaces in 2022, '23 and '24," says David Anderson, a research associate at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy. He predicts that more insurers will enter the marketplaces and spread their footprints within states where they already operate.

With that increased competition, which will continue a trend already taking place on the exchanges, "the opportunity for monopoly pricing…is going down dramatically," according to Anderson.

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Topics: Industry Trends, Data & Analytics, Payer