If Congress or the Trump administration are able to enact any type of drug-pricing reform during 2020, it’s likely to be a redesign of Medicare Part D, industry experts tell AIS Health.
In the Senate, tweaking the Part D benefit is part of a larger piece of bipartisan legislation (S. 2543), championed by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). From the House, there's the sweeping legislation (H.R. 3) proffered by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
"If you look at both the House and the Senate bills that have been put forward here, those [Part D] designs look very similar to one another, so I'm somewhat optimistic that…maybe there's an opportunity for that to move forward," says Stacie Dusetzina, an associate professor of health policy at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.
However, Elizabeth Carpenter at Avalere Health contends that "it is unlikely in this environment that any drug pricing legislation would move as a standalone bill." The most likely pre-election vehicle for a Part D redesign would be the health care extenders package that expires in May, she adds.
Gerard Anderson, a professor at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, is more optimistic. "Drug pricing is the No. 1 issue for most voters when they're talking about health care," he points out. "So they're going to feel a strong pressure" to pass something in Congress. Given that dynamic, he says he expects the Wyden/Grassley bill is likely to pass this year.
In whatever form a Part D redesign passes, Dusetzina says the biggest winner would be patients. While manufacturers and health plans would be on the hook for more spending in the catastrophic coverage phase, "on net, it probably isn't very harmful for any one entity," she contends.